Bitcoin’s 30-day realized volatility closed at 27.2% annualized on August 11, according to VanEck’s mid-August ChainCheck. That is about a third of the asset’s long-run average of roughly 80%. Two months later the market was still calm, despite a Nasdaq sell-off and a breach at one of the largest crypto exchanges.
The chart: Bitcoin’s swings in 2026 against its own history
Realized volatility measures how much the price actually moved over a window, expressed as an annual rate. The bars below compare the 2026 readings with Bitcoin’s trailing-year and long-run levels.
Bitcoin realized volatility, annualized
30-day readings in 2026 compared with longer averages
Swings of about 41% in the spring fell to 30.4% by mid-July and 27.2% by mid-August. On October 21, K33 Research put 28-day volatility at 1.2% a day, near its lowest level of the year. Converted to an annual rate, that is roughly 23%.
Why the swings have shrunk
Part of the answer is who holds the supply. Supply held for at least 155 days reached about 83% of circulating Bitcoin in June, according to Glassnode. It hit a record on July 21. In Glassnode’s research, long-term holder supply explained more of the variation in one-month volatility than any of the other 12 metrics it tested.
Activity has also dried up. VanEck described spot trading volume in August as close to 2023 bear-market levels. K33 measured average daily spot volume at $2.5 billion in the week to October 21. At that point Bitcoin had traded between roughly $80,000 and $84,000 for a week, and in a narrow band since September 21.
The calm has also come during a drawdown. VanEck’s August report placed Bitcoin about 49% below its all-time high. It was the tenth month of a decline from the October 2025 peak.
Options still price more movement
Options traders have been paying for more volatility than the market delivered. Deribit’s DVOL index, which tracks 30-day implied volatility, stood at 38.3 on October 20. That is about 15 points above the realized rate K33 recorded the next day.
The gap shows that hedging demand has held up even as the price stalled. One-month call implied volatility hit 32.7% in mid-August, the lowest reading since at least 2021 by VanEck’s count. Puts stayed near 40%, so traders were paying more to protect against falls than to bet on gains.
The midterm bump
The US midterm elections on November 3 left a visible mark on the options curve. Options expiring on November 4, the day after the vote, carried implied volatility of about 43.5% on November 2, according to Velo data. Later expiries were priced closer to 36%, so the premium covered only a short window around the result.
The spot market had already passed one stress test. After reports of a multi-billion-dollar breach at Binance on October 29 and 30, Bitcoin fell about 2% overnight. It traded near $78,000 on November 2, above its lows from the day of the breach.
What low volatility does and does not signal
Low volatility does not point to a direction. Long quiet stretches have ended with moves in both directions. K33’s head of research, Vetle Lunde, wrote on October 21 that “expansions typically follow such compressions,” and said he expected volatility to pick up.
Options expiring on November 4 settle the day after the vote, which removes the election premium from the front of the curve. The gap between DVOL and realized volatility after that settlement is the next reading to watch.
All volatility figures are annualized unless stated otherwise. Data reflects the dates shown and was last checked on November 3, 2026. This article is for information only and is not investment advice.
